Roundup: CBOT agricultural futures go lower

Chicago (US), November 13: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures went lower in the past week, and as confidence in whether the U.S. Central Bank can orchestrate a "soft landing" is low, rallies in U.S. agricultural markets are believed unlikely to be sustained.
REGARDING CORN
Corn futures ended sharply lower amid continued weak export demand and waning hope that meaningful trade returns prior to February, said Chicago-based research company AgResource.
There are uncertainties surrounding the extension of the Black Sea export corridor, AgResource said, adding that unless the deal is eliminated, Ukrainian exports in crop year 2022-2023 will exceed the forecast of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) by 120-150 million bushels, which in turn keeps the United States as the world's residual supplier.
A range of 6.40-6.90 U.S. dollars is forecast for December corn into January and February, and a lasting bearish trend is unlikely until Argentina's crop size is known, said the company, adding that the return of the dryness there raises questions about South American supply availability prior to Brazil's safrinha harvest next summer.
REGARDING WHEAT
CBOT wheat fell to a new two-month low as Russian exports returned to normal levels and as the market begins to understand Russian exports will not be impeded without a forced halt in Black Sea logistics, AgResource said.
Russian wheat this weekend is offered 30-40 dollars per metric ton below comparable EU origin and a full 100 dollars per ton below U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, said the company, noting that Russia will dominate wheat trade into at least late December at the cost of U.S. and EU export demand.
Rallies and breaks in the near term will be tied exclusively to Black Sea geopolitics and whether the UN, Türkiye, Ukraine and Russia agree to extend the corridor potentially for another 12 months, therefore next week's G20 meeting is important, the company added.
REGARDING SOYBEAN
With U.S. soybean harvest winding down and completed in many regions, AgResource said it expects that 95 percent of U.S. soybean crop will have been gathered by Sunday.
January soybeans were down 12 cents at Friday's close, as USDA long-term agriculture projections released Monday called for a 2023 U.S. soybean yield of 52 bushels per acre, said the company, mentioning that USDA projects a season average soybean price of 13 dollars.
USDA's November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate reports confirmed a slightly larger soybean crop and old crop stocks, AgResource said, adding that it maintains a longer-term bearish soybean outlook as South America grows a record large soybean crop.
Source: Xinhua